I'm not sure if this should go here, but since it's related to beyblade, I'll have a go.
I was thinking if we could work out the chance of winning a tournament with a particular bey, it would be nice (Just for fun, of course). So here's my blargh:
Taking winnables (Winrate>50%) against customs that will generally be at tournaments/the sample space (um?):
Evil Aries BD145Q vs MSF-H Wyvang Wyvang GB145R2F
Winrate=100%
Evil Aries BD145Q vs Duo Cancer W145WD
Winrate=100%
Evil Aries BD145Q vs Dark Gil M145MS
Winrate=0%
Evil Aries BD145Q vs Poison Horogium 230Q
Winrate=0%
Then, we calculate the chance of winning with the equation:
P(W)=(w/c)^m
Where
P is the possibility
W is the chance of winning a tournament
w is the number of combos it can win against
c is the number of combos in the sample space, which is the combos you'd expect at your tournament
m is the number of matches you'd expect to play in your tournament on your way to the finals.
For Evil Aries BD145Q, in a tournament of 16 (2^4) contestants,
P(W)=(2/4)^4
P(W)=1/56
The theoretical chance of winning a tournament of 16 contestants with a Evil Aries BD145Q is 1/56, or 1.785714286%.
Keep in mind that I have only factored in the winrates under testing conditions. In a tournament, anxiety and other factors can affect the chance of winning a tournament. But I'm going to include this in my testing threads.
EDIT: Kai-V What you said is completely true; there are too many variables. Which makes me think of formal testing posting under perfect tournament conditions (if possible, since it's like Heisenberg's uncertainty principle) as a non-negotiable supplementary addition to home-tests in testing threads. I might do it in mine.
(Does anyone want me to work out the chance of winning with multiple blades? If so, I'll update this post).
I was thinking if we could work out the chance of winning a tournament with a particular bey, it would be nice (Just for fun, of course). So here's my blargh:
Taking winnables (Winrate>50%) against customs that will generally be at tournaments/the sample space (um?):
Evil Aries BD145Q vs MSF-H Wyvang Wyvang GB145R2F
Winrate=100%
Evil Aries BD145Q vs Duo Cancer W145WD
Winrate=100%
Evil Aries BD145Q vs Dark Gil M145MS
Winrate=0%
Evil Aries BD145Q vs Poison Horogium 230Q
Winrate=0%
Then, we calculate the chance of winning with the equation:
P(W)=(w/c)^m
Where
P is the possibility
W is the chance of winning a tournament
w is the number of combos it can win against
c is the number of combos in the sample space, which is the combos you'd expect at your tournament
m is the number of matches you'd expect to play in your tournament on your way to the finals.
For Evil Aries BD145Q, in a tournament of 16 (2^4) contestants,
P(W)=(2/4)^4
P(W)=1/56
The theoretical chance of winning a tournament of 16 contestants with a Evil Aries BD145Q is 1/56, or 1.785714286%.
Keep in mind that I have only factored in the winrates under testing conditions. In a tournament, anxiety and other factors can affect the chance of winning a tournament. But I'm going to include this in my testing threads.
EDIT: Kai-V What you said is completely true; there are too many variables. Which makes me think of formal testing posting under perfect tournament conditions (if possible, since it's like Heisenberg's uncertainty principle) as a non-negotiable supplementary addition to home-tests in testing threads. I might do it in mine.
(Does anyone want me to work out the chance of winning with multiple blades? If so, I'll update this post).